How to use dota2llm signals responsibly
A signal is a statistical edge against the bookmaker's price — not a guarantee. This page exists so that's never a surprise. Read it once, then watch the broadcast with your own eyes every single map.
Watch the broadcast yourself
Every signal is a message, not a replacement for your eyes on the game. Always have the stream open — a draft call gone wrong, a tilting player or a shaky connection are things the model simply can't see.
Follow signals through the whole map
A map gets more than one message — an early preview, the live checkpoint, an odds-spike alert, an Aegis pickup. Stay engaged for all of them instead of acting on the first one and walking away.
Never trust the model 100%
dota2llm is an analytical advisor, not an autopilot. Keep your own opinion on your shoulders — the model's job is to inform that opinion with real numbers, not to replace it.
What a signal actually means
The model's core live signals often land right when the bookmaker's own price has just made its sharpest move. That's exactly when a real statistical edge is easiest to find — but it also means the price you'd be taking can already be 2.5 or higher. A bigger price means the bookmaker itself is pricing in more uncertainty for that outcome, not less. The model finding an edge against that price doesn't cancel the uncertainty it reflects — it means the edge is worth it on average, across many picks, not that this specific one is settled in advance. These are real, win-or-lose calls, and the live track record shows both honestly, map by map.
A stable edge, not a promise
Pulled live from the same running model as the track record above — not a guarantee for any single pick, and never a reason to stop thinking for yourself.
The first Aegis is a signal of its own
Watching the broadcast and a team picks up the map's very first Aegis? That alone is one of the strongest signals in the game. Historically, the side that takes the first Aegis of the map goes on to win it. This is live statistics pulled from the local model, not a one-off backtest — it updates on its own as more maps finish.
Compare "Draft hero winrate" against the model's own call
Every live signal includes a line labeled Draft hero winrate — the real, per-player hero-pool win rate for each team's five picks. This is a separate number from the model's own internal prediction, not the same figure restated. Treat it as a second opinion: when it points the same direction as the model's call for the map, that's reinforcing evidence. When it disagrees, that's exactly when to slow down and watch the game more closely before deciding.
Before you place a bet
Does a signal guarantee I'll win the bet?
No. A signal means the model found a statistical edge against the bookmaker's price at that moment — not that the outcome is certain. The model's own track record (67-70% at the 19-minute checkpoint, 76-80% at the 28-minute checkpoint) means a meaningful share of signals still lose. Treat every signal as a lean, not a promise.
Why does a signal sometimes fire at odds of 2.5 or higher?
The model's live signals often land exactly when the bookmaker's own price has just moved the most. A bigger price means the bookmaker itself is pricing in more uncertainty for that outcome. The model found an edge against that specific price — it does not cancel out the underlying uncertainty the price reflects. These are real, win-or-lose picks, shown honestly in the live track record either way.
What if I disagree with a signal after watching the game myself?
Go with your own read. The model sees a lot — picks, bans, team ratings, live net worth, kills, tower state, hero draft win rates, and other relevant player data — but it can't read a shaky lane matchup, a player tilting, a connection issue, an in-game pause, or a fixed match. Watching the broadcast yourself is not optional; it's the final check the model can't do for you.
Keep this page in mind, every map
A signal is a lean backed by real numbers — the broadcast and the final call are still yours.
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